Interview

A Long-Term View with Ron Baron: SpaceX and the Power of Conviction

Ron Baron discusses Baron Capital’s long-term investment approach, using SpaceX as an example of the qualities we seek in exceptional businesses: visionary leadership, durable competitive advantages, significant growth opportunities, and the ability to compound value over time. He also shares how conviction, discipline, and patience have shaped our investment philosophy for more than four decades.

Source attribution: Original source

Interview details

Publication date: Aug 17, 2026
Duration: 1h 0m

Speakers

Ron BaronFounder, Baron Capital

Viewpoints in this interview

Long-term ownership matters more than short-term trading

Baron says his investment approach is to understand businesses deeply, buy companies capable of becoming much larger, and hold them through market fluctuations while focusing on their prospects five or ten years ahead.

Ron Baron Long-Term Investing Source at 29:40

Investment conviction requires repeatedly testing the underlying thesis

Baron says conviction is built through continuous research, repeated contact with management, and testing assumptions rather than simply taking a contrarian position.

Ron Baron Long-Term Investing Source at 51:11

Tesla could generate much greater returns over the next decade

Baron expects Tesla to produce substantially more investment gains for Baron Capital over the next decade as its business expands beyond manufacturing and selling cars.

Ron Baron Tesla Source at 3:51

Robotaxis could transform Tesla's vehicle economics

Baron argues that company-owned autonomous vehicles could generate recurring revenue and large annual profits relative to their production cost, with robotics providing an additional future opportunity.

Ron Baron Tesla Source at 4:31

SpaceX represents an unusually compelling long-term investment

Baron describes SpaceX as unlike any company he has encountered during his investment career and expects Baron Capital's SpaceX holdings to compound dramatically over a ten-to-fifteen-year horizon.

Ron Baron SpaceX Source at 6:10

Short-term SpaceX price movements are not the investment focus

Baron says he cannot predict SpaceX's near-term share price and instead evaluates what the company could become and be worth over five- and ten-year periods.

Ron Baron SpaceX Source at 24:51

Baron does not intend to sell its SpaceX position

Baron says he intends to maintain the firm's substantial SpaceX ownership rather than sell when lockups expire, consistent with its long-term ownership philosophy.

Ron Baron SpaceX Source at 31:17

Starlink could become a global internet platform

Baron views Starlink as infrastructure capable of providing internet connectivity globally, particularly where terrestrial connections are unavailable, expensive, or inadequate.

Ron Baron Starlink Source at 9:52

Baron projects trillion-dollar annual revenue for Starlink

Baron projects that Starlink could reach roughly one trillion dollars in annual revenue within ten years, with demand divided among individuals, governments, and enterprises.

Ron Baron Starlink Source at 10:52

Baron estimates Starlink alone could reach a $14 trillion valuation

Based on his projected revenue and profitability, Baron estimates that Starlink alone could eventually be worth approximately fourteen trillion dollars.

Ron Baron Starlink Source at 11:24

Space-based data centers could have structurally lower costs

Baron argues that orbital data centers could avoid terrestrial electricity, water, permitting, and some maintenance costs while benefiting from solar power and radiative cooling.

Ron Baron Space-Based AI Compute Source at 12:59

Starlink is essential infrastructure for orbital AI compute

Baron says space-based computing requires a communications network capable of returning inference results to Earth, giving Starlink a central role in an integrated orbital compute architecture.

Ron Baron Space-Based AI Compute Source at 15:00

Reusable Starship could dramatically reduce launch costs

Baron says reusable rockets have already reduced SpaceX's launch cost per kilogram and expects Starship to lower it much further, creating a major cost advantage over competitors.

Ron Baron Starship and Launch Economics Source at 16:26

Orbital AI compute could exceed Starlink's economic opportunity

Baron projects that revenue from space-based AI compute could eventually reach several trillion dollars annually and become multiple times more valuable than Starlink.

Ron Baron Space-Based AI Compute Source at 17:30

SpaceX may manufacture chips to avoid supply constraints

Baron says SpaceX's projected chip requirements could exceed what existing suppliers are willing or able to provide, making internal semiconductor manufacturing necessary to sustain growth.

Ron Baron Vertical Integration Source at 18:15

Compute may become scarcer than AI model capability

Baron argues that frontier AI models themselves will become increasingly commoditized, while access to large amounts of compute will remain a more important constraint and competitive advantage.

Ron Baron AI compute Source at 20:16

Unused AI compute can be monetized while Grok scales

Baron says excess compute capacity built for Grok can temporarily be sold to outside AI companies, generating revenue from infrastructure before xAI needs all of the capacity itself.

Ron Baron AI compute Source at 21:04

SpaceX's government defense business is becoming more important

Baron says government and defense contracts are becoming a larger opportunity for SpaceX, although he does not consider government dependence critical to the overall company.

Ron Baron Government and Defense Source at 47:13

SpaceX's fixed-price approach can undercut traditional defense contractors

Baron argues that SpaceX can perform government work faster and at lower cost because agencies increasingly specify desired outcomes while SpaceX designs solutions and works under fixed-price rather than cost-plus contracts.

Ron Baron Government and Defense Source at 46:19

Satellite security remains a recognized risk

Baron acknowledges the possibility of hostile actors attacking satellites and creating orbital debris, saying SpaceX remains wary of security threats to space assets.

Ron Baron Government and Defense Source at 41:38